Sunday, August 27, 4pm (AEST) at Pepper Stadium, Penrith
The Panthers are an outside chance of finishing in the Top 4, while the Dragons season could be over with a loss at the foot of the mountains on Sunday. Matt Moylan is out for the Panthers with a hamstring injury, while Dragons centre Euan Aitken has been ruled out for the year due to a shoulder injury.
HistoryThe Dragons have won three straight against the Panthers, while the Panthers have won the last three played in Penrith. The Dragons thumped the Panthers 42-10 when they played in Round 1 at Kogarah. Dragons five-eighth scored a double and had a points haul of 22 for the match. Joel Thompson scored a hat-trick in the 32-point win.
FormPenrith’s hot form continued over the weekend with a 26-22 win over the Raiders in Canberra. The Panthers are sixth on the ladder with a 13-9 record. Penrith have now won seven on the trot and 11 of their last 13. St George Illawarra are ninth on the ladder with an 11-11 record having won just three of their last 10 matches (including two against bottom three teams). The Saints have conceded at least 20 in eight of their last 10. The Dragons have not defeated a team currently in the Top 6 since Round 3.
Stats That Matter– Penrith are 12-10 ATS with a 12-10 under record while St George Illawarra are 12-10 ATS with a 12-10 under record.
– The Dragons have won three straight against the Panthers.
– The Panthers have won the last three played in Penrith.
– Seven of the last eight matches have failed to top 35 points.
– Since 2008, teams who win seven straight cover at just 40% while that numbers drops to 26% if they are favoured by 6.5 or more.
– Penrith are 13-7 ATS when favoured by 6.5 or more, covering eight of their last nine.
– Penrith have covered 10 of their last 13 as a favourite at Pepper Stadium.
– The Panthers are 18-12 under as a favourite at Pepper Stadium.
– The Dragons have covered 5 of their last 6 as an underdog of 6 or more.
– The under is 23-12 when the Saints are getting a start of 6 or more. The Saints are 33-15 under on the road.
Final ThoughtsThe Panthers are flying of late and are an outside chance of making the Top 4. They’ve won seven on the trot and 11 of their last 13. They also will have revenge on their minds after the thrashing that the Dragons handed out in Round 1. The Wolf says to back the Panthers 1-12 here.
How It’s Shaping UpPenrith by 6
Best Bet
Penrith 1-12 ($3)
Penrith 1-12 ($3)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 40.5 ($1.88)
Under 40.5 ($1.88)
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