Nottingham Forest v Leeds: Tricky Trees can topple unbeaten guests

Nottingham Forest v Leeds
Saturday 26th August, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Forest aiming high

Mark Warburton labelled Nottingham Forest's League Cup victory away at Newcastle in midweek as "outstanding" as a brace from Jason Cummings and an extra-time winner from Tyler Walker steered the Tricky Trees into the third round courtesy of a dramatic 3-2 win.

Despite fielding a makeshift midfield, Forest fought for every ball and survived an onslaught from their Premier League opponents thanks to an excellent defensive rearguard display to continue a buoyant start to 2017/18.

Having only survived relegation on the final day of last season, Warburton's side have now W4-D1-L1 across all competitions this term, grabbing 12 goals in the process, as aspirations turns towards a potential top-six finish.

Leeds over-performing?

Leeds remain unbeaten under Thomas Christiansen and secured their own passage in the League Cup on Tuesday night, coming from behind to put League Two outfit Newport to the sword with Keemar Roofe grabbing a hat-trick in a thumping 5-1 victory.

United made their 13th signing this week with Dutch forward Jay-Roy Grot joining from NEC Nijmegen and the 19 year-old is in line for a potential debut this weekend following the loss of star striker Chris Wood to Burnley.

The Whites have W2-D2-L0 on Championship duty thus far but the visitors were a touch fortunate to leave Sunderland with a 2-0 triumph last Saturday. Leeds registered just eight shots in the match with Expected Goals data suggesting they had just a 6.5% chance of scoring twice from those opportunities.

Value to be found with the Tricky Trees

Nottingham Forest 2.60 boasted the 10th best home record in the Championship last season and having won 14/25 (56%) City Ground outings since the beginning of 2016/17, immediately appear value at the odds on offer.

Granted, the Tricky Trees undeservedly picked up maximum points at home to Millwall on the opening day but Warburton's charges have since dispatched Middlesbrough here.

Forest tend to enjoy the big occasion - they've won six of their past six when hosting top-six opposition and their W3-D2-L0 record when welcoming Leeds to the banks of the River Trent also commands respect.

Despite their unbeaten start, Leeds 2.88 look a little skinny. The visitors have been beaten in 10/25 (40%) road trips since the start of last season and pitch up a little short on bodies in both attack and defence.

However, their resolute performances under Christiansen suggest they'll be a tough cookie to crack so backing Forest in the Draw No Bet market [1.87 ]should suit with the added security of having the draw onside.

Stats suggest goals could flow

Nottingham Forest racked up the fifth most goals when playing home Championship football last season and early signs suggest the Tricky Trees will be a profitable side to follow in the goals markets once more.

Over 2.5 Goals has landed in all of Forest's past five fixtures, as well as 14 of their previous 22 at the City Ground, suggesting there's juice in the 1.92 for a game involving at least three goals.

Leeds haven't proven quite as fruitful but with 12 of their last 15 away days paying-out for Both Teams To Score punters and the two clubs keeping a combined 11/50 (22%) clean sheets in respective home and away contests, there's mileage in 1.70 quotes for a repeat.

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