AFL Preview: Magpies v Demons

Collingwood v Melbourne
Saturday 1:45pm at MCG

Collingwood’s season is all over while Melbourne need to win to ensure they make a long awaited return to finals football.

FormCollingwood are 13^th on the ladder with an 8-12-1 record, ranking 11^th in scoring and 12^th in defence. The Magpies have finished the season strong, going undefeated for a month before respectable losses to Port and Geelong. The Magpies have not won any of their last six at the MCG.

Melbourne are seventh on the ladder with a 12-9 record. They rank seventh in scoring and ninth in defence. The Demons have won their last two, sneaking home against St Kilda and Brisbane. Melbourne have conceded 100 just once in their last 10 games.

Stats That Matter

• Melbourne have won four straight against Collingwood
• Melbourne have covered four of their last five against Collingwood
• The under has hit in 5 of the last 7 Magpies-Demons games
• Collingwood are 15-27 ATS in day games at the MCG since 2012 with a 24-18 over record
• Melbourne are 26-28 ATS in day games at the MCG with a 32-22 under record
• The Demons are 7-16 ATS as a favourite at the MCG with a 15-8 under record
• Collingwood have covered 7 of their last 8 games at the MCG as an outsider
• The Magpies have covered 11 of their last 13 as an outsider
• The under is 21-12 after Collingwood have conceded 70 or fewer
• Melbourne have covered just 3 of their last 12 after scoring 100

Betting Data2017 Line: Collingwood 12-9, Melbourne 8-13
2017 Over-Under: Collingwood 10-11, Melbourne 9-12

What To ExpectLove the Magpies in this despite the Demons’ need to win. Collingwood have been exceptional bets as an underdog of late while Melbourne have been absolute poison as a favourite, particularly at the MCG. Melbourne are a poor 3 of their last 12 after scoring 100 points.

How It’s Shaping UpCollingwood by 6

Recommended Bet
Collingwood +7.5 ($1.90)

Player MarketsSteele Sidebottom has hit at least 108 in eight of his last 12 games. Should see a bit of it against the Demons, whom he posted 133 against last time out.

Recommended Bet
Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.90)