Friday 25th August, 19:45
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A selection conundrum for Bristol City
Lee Johnson made nine changes to his Bristol City side for Tuesday night's League Cup tie at Watford but a brilliant counter-attacking performance from the Robins saw the BS3 club oust their Premier League hosts 2-1.
Only goalkeeper Frank Fielding and Senegal international Famara Diedhiou featured in Saturday's 0-0 stalemate against Millwall but a youthful City squad, including in-demand Aden Flint, stood up well to the challenge at Vicarage Road.
Having opened their Championship account with a convincing 3-1 success over Barnsley, Bristol City have since picked up two points from a possible nine, Johnson must now decide whether to promote any of Tuesday's impressive performers into his starting XI for Friday night's fixture.
Villa bemoan their lack of a killer instinct
Scott Hogan made a surprise return from injury in midweek to net twice as Aston Villa eased into the third round of the League Cup with a 4-1 triumph at home to Wigan. It means Steve Bruce's team have now notched eight goals in the past week following their impressive 4-2 victory when welcoming Norwich.
In both encounters, chances went begging, leaving the Villa management to publicly bemoan their lack of killer instinct. And with Keinan Davis - who dazzled on his full debut last weekend - ruled out, along with Gabby Agbonlahor and Jonathan Kodjia, the visitors will be relying upon Hogan once more.
Mile Jedinak is sick and will also be absent but Josh Onomah returns as Villa search for their first Championship win against a current second-tier side since December 2016.
Robins the value bet
Bristol City 2.58 have racked up 15 goals across their last seven Championship outings at Ashton Gate (W5-D1-L1) and the Robins' W16-D6-L11 return under Johnson certainly suggests the hosts should be a little shorter in the market.
That 48% home win rate under Johnson implies betting odds of 2.06 would be more reflective of City's ability. Despite claiming a sole league success this season, the Robins' performance data ranks the home side among the top-six, making them a value bet for Friday.
For a more cautious - but equally enticing angle - punters should consider supporting Bristol City at a bulbous 1.81 in the Draw No Bet market.
Villa picked up their maiden 2017/18 Championship victory last weekend but the visitors' desperate road results suggest they should be avoided at 3.10 quotes here. The Villans have W2-D1-L10 on their travels since December with the two triumphs arriving against recently-relegated Rotherham and Wigan.
Goals could flow on Friday
Over 2.5 Goals is backable at 2.08 here and there might be wriggleroom in the price to support a goal-heavy game. Collectively, the two clubs have beaten the two-goal line in 12 of their 14 games across all competitions this term.
The hosts have rewarded Over 2.5 Goals fans in 18/33 (55%) Ashton Gate encounters under Johnson with Both Teams To Score following suit on 17 (52%) occasions. Meanwhile, Aston Villa have returned just five away clean sheets since dropping down to the Championship.
Recommended Bets
Back Bristol City draw no bet 1.81
Back Over 2.5 Goals 2.08
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