Saturday, August 26, 5:30pm (AEST) at AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Storm secured the minor premiership with a comfortable win over the Knights last week. All of the stars have been named, but it’s worth keeping an eye on late team news. The Rabbitohs have lost prolific try-scorer Alex Johnston to a hamstring injury, with Bryson Goodwin making the move to fullback.
HistoryThe Storm are 23-4 all-time v South Sydney with four straight wins against the Bunnies. The Storm defeated the Rabbitohs 14-6 in Perth in Round 11 this year.
FormMelbourne secured the minor premiership on Saturday with a dominant win away at Newcastle. The Storm are well clear at the top of the table with an 18-4 record. The Storm have won five straight since the Origin period, conceding just 10.6 points per game over that stretch. Melbourne have posted 40-plus in two of their last four. South Sydney are up to 11th on the ladder with a 9-13 record following three straight wins – with Damien Cook starting at hooker in all. Souths have scored 26-plus in each of those wins. Souths have not beaten a team in the Top 4 this year.
Key MatchupCameron Munster v Cody Walker: Munster made a solid return against the Knights last week, setting up two tries in his side’s big win. He only ran the ball seven times against the Knights with Cooper Cronk on the sidelines and will go back to a more run-heavy game with Cronk named in the No.7 jersey. Walker has been extremely inconsistent this season and has failed to recapture his 2016 form. He was very good in last week’s win over the Warriors, running for 102 metres and scoring a try. He needs to lift against the big sides like the Storm.
Stats That Matter– Melbourne are 12-10 ATS with an 11-11 totals record while South Sydney are 12-10 ATS with an 11-11 total number.
– Melbourne are 23-4 all-time v South Sydney with four straight wins against the Bunnies.
– The total has failed to top 34 points in 11 of their last 12 meetings.
– The Storm have covered just 3 of their last 11 home games.
– The under is 18-4 when the Storm are at home after conceding 14 or fewer.
– Melbourne are 12-18 ATS as a home favourite of 6.5 or more and have covered just 1 of their last 4 when a home favourite of 12.5 or more.
– The under is 22-13 when the home team hits by 30 or more in their prior start.
– Souths have covered in nine of their last 14 games away from ANZ and seven of their last 10 interstate.
– The under is 21-10 when an interstate outsider scored 36 or more points the game prior.
– Souths are 14-9 ATS after posting 30 or more points.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is very keen on the Rabbitohs with the big start. There’s the risk that the Storm could rest players or not give 80 minutes to their stars with the minor premiership sewn up.
How It’s Shaping UpMelbourne by 7
Best Bet
South Sydney +14 ($1.91)
South Sydney +14 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 40.5 ($1.88)
Under 40.5 ($1.88)
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