AFL Grand Final Player Prop Tips

Disposals

Matt Crouch
Has posted 30+ disposals in 10 straight games and is averaging 35.14 over his last 7 outings for the Crows. With a tight contest expected we could see him rack up in exscess of 20 handballs! The $2.45 on offer looks a great bet.
Best: Crouch 35+ Disposals ($2.45)

Dion Prestia
Prestia has taken his game to another level over the last 2 months. He has managed 22 or more disposals in each of his last 6 games at an average of 26.5 and with multiple 30+ performances. The 25+ is money in the bag while 30+ at the price is definitely worth some spare change.
Best: Prestia 25+ Disposals ($1.70)
Value: Prestia 30+ Disposals ($4.50)

Most Kicks Group A

Laird heads the market on the back of his 20 kick performance against the Cats but The Wolf says there is no way he should be this short in the market. His averages may be higher that his competition in this group but there are other who have a higher ceiling and that’s what winning the group is all about. Cotchin has posted 15 or more in just 1 of his last 6 so you can put a line through him while Ellis has a total of 13 kicks in the final series. Two names have caught The Wolf’s eye – Houli and Grigg. Houli has 14 or more in each of his last 5 with a highest output of 18 with Grigg the best ceiling option. Likely to match up against Atkins (a defensive liability) Grigg will have his way on the wing. The width of the MCG is another plus and if he can replicate the 24 kicks he had against Freo in Round 22 he will win this in a canter!
Best Bet: Shaun Grigg ($8.00)

Most Marks Group A

Back up the trucks punters because The Wolf has found one that he loves at a price! Rory Laird has snatched 10 or more marks in 3 of his last 5 including a whopping 15 last week in the prelim. The only other player to reach 10 in the last 5 games was Lynch and even he only managed to do so once in the last 5 weeks and only 4 times throughout the entire season. The Tigers will look for Butler, Rioli and Castagna to collectively pressure Laird but without a dedicated tag The Wolf can see him racking up the marks. Richmond will be content to give up marks as long as they can shut down Laird’s running game and if we can snag a $7 winner we will also be just fine.
Best Bet: Rory Laird ($7.00)

Most Tackles Group A

With Sloane landing just 4 tackles last week we should steer well clear of him – especially at the short price. Brad Crouch and Cotchin have 18 tackles a piece in their last two outings but The Wolf is swinging the pendulum in Cotchin’s favour. He had a game high 11 tackles when the two sides met back in round 6 and that was in a game in which his side were handed 76 point hiding. He will be right in the thick of things on Saturday and we could see him reach double figures in this category.
Best Bet: Trent Cotchin ($6.50)

Disposal Line & Total Double (Crouch & Martin)

Dusty is averaging just 24 disposals per game in the final series, well down on his 29.8 for the season. Crouch on the other hand has posted 30+ in 10 straight and it doesn’t look like they will be slowing him down. With the combined total set at 61.5 The Wolf’s immediate inkling is the Unders. We rarely see players post a massive number of disposals in Grand Finals and if one of them fails to reach 25 they won’t be going close to the combined total. There is no doubt that the Crows will be making a concerned effort to shut down the Brownlow Medalist and with less than 30 disposals in 3 of his last 5 The Wolf is expecting Martin to have another sub 30 disposal game. It makes the Crouh -2.5 & Under 61.5 double the way to go.
Best Bet: Matt Crouch -2.5 & Under 61.5 ($3.60)