Tuesday, 19:45
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Yellow peril for Madrid?
How do you warm up for your toughest game of the season so far? Ideally by flexing your muscles in the league and preserving a bit of energy. By that metric, it was job done for Borussia Dortmund on Saturday: Peter Bosz's were 3-0 up at half-time against Borussia Monchgladbach, eventually winning 6-1 to secure their place at the top of the Bundesliga.
Dortmund have now won their last three games by an aggregate score of 14-1 and have a league goal difference of +18, meaning confidence will be high in the camp. Indeed the only blemish on their copybook so far this season was their Champions League opener against Spurs - a 3-1 reversal for which they will be keen to make up on Tuesday night when Real Madrid come to town.
Bosz is still without a number of senior players - Marco Reus, Raphaël Guerreiro, André Schürrle, Erik Durm and Marcel Schmelzer are all injured - but the squad depth is impressive, It has helped that new signings Andriy Yarmolenko and Maximilian Philipp have both made eye-catching contributions in the opening weeks of the season.
Madrid still wobbling
You take inspiration however it comes during difficult moments and Zinedine Zidane was thankful for a healthy dollop of magic from an unlikely source at the weekend. Dani Ceballos, who was making his league debut for Real Madrid, scored twice as Los Merengues ground out an unconvincing win over Alavés.
It was a win that Madrid really needed: they are already seven points adrift of Barcelona in La Liga, having dropped points against Valencia, Levante and Real Betis. And while they made short work of APOEL in their European curtain-raiser, questions linger over their unexpected malaise. After a summer during which their main domestic rivals seemed to have imploded, it wasn't meant to be this way.
In Germany, Zidane is likely to recall Marcelo after his domestic ban, and Luka Modrić, who was rested at the weekend. Gareth Bale will also be hoping to return, although he is not guaranteed a starting berth these days, even with Karim Benzema sidelined.
No element of surprise between familiar foes
No two teams have played each other more than these two in the Champions League since 2012/13: this will be their ninth meeting in that period. Madrid haven't won any of the last three and have yet to beat Dortmund away from home in six attempts (D3 L3), and considering their shaky form we won't be backing them at 2.36 to take maximum points at the Westfalenstadion.
Dortmund, for all their attacking verve in domestic football, looked vulnerable against Tottenham and their squad pales in comparison to Madrid's as far as Champions League experience goes. 3.05 is the price for the home win, but given Los Merengues haven't lost a group game since 2012 (Dortmund were their conquerors, coincidentally), the draw looks the best value here at 3.95.
Goals likely to flow
Dortmund scored two goals on each of the last three meetings with Madrid and clearly don't lack for conviction in the final third. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang continues to rack up the goals, with Christian Pulisic, Shinji Kagawa, Yarmolenko and Philipp all capable sidekicks. We fully expect the hosts to find the net against a Madrid defence that often hands out chances.
At the other end, too, there should be action: Real Madrid have failed to score only once in their last 51 Champions League group games and will be confident of puncturing a backline that failed to impress against Spurs. Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 and both teams to score at 1.39 offer little bang for our buck, however, so instead consider backing both teams to score twice or, more ambitiously, both to score in both halves at 6/1.
In-form Philipp can make hay
Cristiano Ronaldo will mop up most bets here, but the value pick could be Philipp. He will surely start having played a starring role at the weekend (two goals and an assist) and should be available at odds of 3.50 or higher to net on Tuesday.
Recommended Bets
Back the draw at 3.95
Back both teams to score in both halves at 6/1
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