Tuesday September 26, 19:45
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Injury-hit Spartak have lost their way
Having dominated Russian football in the 1990s, Spartak Moscow have endured a long spell out of the limelight, but now they are back in the Champions League spotlight. Antonio Conte's long-time assistant Massimo Carrera struck out on his own, and last season he delivered Spartak's first league title since 2001.
However, the lustre of that success is beginning to fade. Spartak have struggled with injury problems, and as such their title defence has been a huge disappointment. After 11 games, Spartak lie seventh in the standings, a sobering 13 points behind the leaders Zenit.
Spartak's Champions League campaign got off to a difficult start too. They blew a lead in a 1-1 draw at Maribor, conceding an equaliser with five minutes to go. To make matters worse, a flare thrown from the away end landed near referee Denis Aytekin, and Spartak fans have been banned from the trip to face Sevilla later in the group stage.
Spartak will be battling to get key players fit ahead of Tuesday's game. Forward Quincy Promes has been Spartak's top scorer in the past three seasons, and his pace and mobility has seen him linked with a move to Liverpool, but he missed the weekend's draw with Anzhi. Influential midfielder Denis Glushakov is also an injury doubt, while January signing Luiz Adriano's star has fallen considerably due to fitness issues and a lack of form.
Buoyant Liverpool looking for first group-stage win
After a sticky spell which quite frankly had yielded far too much criticism from pundits and fans alike, Liverpool returned to winning ways on Saturday as they won 3-2 at Leicester. Philippe Coutinho underlined his importance with a stunning free-kick, Mo Salah bagged yet another goal, and the breakaway goal from Jordan Henderson that proved to be the winner was superbly taken.
Yes, there were defensive issues, and Liverpool struggled badly against the pace of Jamie Vardy. However, they are not alone in that (Vardy has been fantastic this season), and over the course of the 90 minutes you'd struggle to argue that Liverpool weren't deserved winners. Jurgen Klopp admits that his team are making mistakes defensively, but it's absurd to suggest that he isn't working on ironing out those problems. Klopp proved at Borussia Dortmund that he could set up a defence, and I firmly believe that he will get it right at some stage.
After a hugely frustrating draw with Sevilla on Matchday One, Liverpool hope to pick up three valuable points in the Russian capital. Their away form is mixed - in the Premier League they've had a win, a draw and a hefty defeat, while in cup competitions the Reds have won at Hoffenheim and lost at Leicester City.
Sadio Mane should be fresh after his domestic suspension, and a fine display from Daniel Sturridge at the King Power on Saturday has given Klopp something to chew over.
Liverpool rightly favourites, but price may be too short
Given Spartak's spluttering start to the season, and the lack of pace in their defence, I can see why Liverpool are favourites. However, I feel that 1.71 is just too short. Liverpool are inconsistent on the road, and although their defence is a work in progress, the team isn't defending well enough as a unit at present.
Spartak have only lost one of their first five home games of the league season, and if they get Promes and Glushakov fit (that's a big if), they'll pose Liverpool a few problems. It's also worth bearing in mind that a return to the Champions League is a huge deal for Spartak fans, so I'd expect them to give their team raucous support. I suspect Liverpool will win, but I'm looking at other markets here.
Goals likely to be on the agenda
Spartak have players who can threaten the Liverpool defence (they haven't failed to score in a home game for a year), but at the other end, they have a clear lack of pace, especially in the full-back positions. Four of Liverpool's five away games this season have featured three goals or more, and three of those have seen an Over 3.5 Goals bet land.
I'm quite happy to back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.77.
Salah and Mane to enjoy themselves
I suggested on this site before the season kicked off that Mohamed Salah would be a perfect fit for Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool, and that's proving to be the case. The jet-heeled Egyptian has scored six goals in all competitions, and has netted in the last three matches. You can back him at 2.60 to score in 90 minutes on the Sportsbook, and I think that's a great bet given Spartak's lack of speed in defence. The returning Mane is 2.40.
On the Spartak side of things, keep an eye on Promes' fitness, because he's definitely worth a look at [2.87].
Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.77
Back Mohamed Salah to score at 2.60
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