Stoke v Southampton: Don't expect a thriller as two of the top-flight's worst attacks do battle

Stoke v Southampton
Saturday September 30

Potters' patched-up defence a cause for concern
Six Premier League games have yielded just five points for Mark Hughes' side, and Stoke go into this fixture in 16th place. Though beaten 4-0 by Chelsea last time out, home form is far more impressive than away and the Potters can point to a defeat of Arsenal and a draw with Manchester United as evidence of their continued ability to mix it with the big boys in the top-flight.
Hughes has a few concerns at the back - Geoff Cameron and Ryan Shawcross are definitely out and Bruno Martins Indi and Kevin Wimmer are doubts. That leaves the club short in central defence for this clash.

Same old story for Southampton so far this season...
As pointed out in last week's Southampton preview the south coast side are really struggling for goals and so it proved as they lost 1-0 at home to Manchester United. There's no shame in that - only Stoke have scored against United in the league this year - but it's now four games without scoring in six Premier League fixtures. Only Crystal Palace and Swansea have scored fewer. On the flipside the defence is ticking along nicely with just the Manchester clubs and Huddersfield conceding fewer.
Manager Mauricio Pellegrino has no injury problems to contend with, defender Matt Targett is nearing a return to first team action having suffered with an ankle injury.

Shot-shy Saints favourites to win
Betfair punters have made the visitors the clear favourites, backing Saints in to 2.52 in the match odds through the week. Stoke are out to 3.15 and the draw is a 3.35 shot.
Let's be honest, with three wins between them, neither club has been particularly reliable in the match odds this season.
I'm not sure I can bring myself to back an unconvincing Southampton at that price, but they do appear to have a good opportunity to at least find the back of the net should Stoke start with a patched-up defence.
A case can be made for Stoke, using home form as a guide. Yes, they were destroyed by Chelsea last time out and come into the game on a worrying run of three straight defeats, but results at the Bet365 Stadium are generally positive - wins over Arsenal and Rochdale (in the league cup) and that draw against United. The defensive concerns are a worry, however, and I don't find any of the three options in the market that attractive.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
It's little surprise to see unders as short as 1.73 and it's pretty hard to argue with the price, although Stoke's dodgy defence offers an element of uncertainty.
On the plus side for unders backers is the state of the Southampton attack. While we can expect Pellegrino to work on his side's woes in this department, the Opta stats show the size of job he has to do - Southampton have failed to score in 10 of their last 14 Premier League matches and have scored just eight goals from 180 shots in these games (4.4%).
Stoke will do well to break the Southampton rearguard, too. The visitors have kept clean sheets through both away games this season, and four in six top-flight matches.
Given the strength of Saints' backline and their weakness in attack it looks reasonable to back no in the both teams to score market at 1.97. Nearly even money on Southampton either keeping a clean sheet or failing to score looks a reasonable bet to me.

Ref Watch
Mike Jones takes charge of his third Premier League match, and his second involving Saints (he was the man in black for the season-opening draw with Swansea). Jones averages four yellows per game.

Recommended Bet 
Back No in Both Teams to Score @ 1.97