Wednesday 27th September, 19:45
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Atletico Madrid deserve maximum respect at home
Semi-finalists in three of the past four seasons, Atletico Madrid should rightly be feared on the Champions League circuit. Diego Simeone's squad might not be the most aesthetically-pleasing on the continent but what they lack in style and swagger, they make-up for in organisation, resilience and work ethic.
Los Colchoneros have been snubbed in the outright market by the odds makers but the La Liga high-flyers deserve maximum respect from punters. Despite starting their campaign with a 0-0 draw at Roma, Atletico dominated the encounter, hitting the woodwork twice and firing in ten on-target efforts.
The hosts have also had time to bed-in to their new home and surroundings at the Wanda Metropolitano. An uninspiring and limp victory over Malaga here was followed by an eye-catching triumph at Athletic Bilbao before the capital club ground out another three points when welcoming Sevilla here on Saturday.
Conte still has plenty to prove with Chelsea
Chelsea kicked-off their return to the Champions League with a cushy club-record equalling 6-0 smashing of newcomers Qarabag at Stamford Bridge. The Blues were gifted the majority of their goals and were able to cruise in second gear for the majority of their opening encounter.
Antonio Conte's charges were second-best in a surprise 0-0 draw at home to Arsenal thereafter before taking advantage of Stoke's defensive crisis in a 4-0 triumph last time out. Alvaro Morata hit the headlines with a hat-trick but the Blues only attempted seven shots and boasted an xG supremacy of only 0.66-1.39, suggesting it wasn't quite as clear-cut as the final score.
Danny Drinkwater is the only player definitely ruled out although David Luiz is carrying a wrist injury. Eden Hazard has been eased back into first-team action and may feature in Conte's preferred 3-4-2-1 system alongside Pedro, tucked in behind Morata.
Atletico edge favouritism
Atletico Madrid 2.18 are unbeaten in their past four fixtures with Chelsea (W2-D2-L0) and under Simeone's watch have returned W18-D4-L1 at home on Champions League duty, beating the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich in recent seasons without conceding a goal.
Los Colchoneros have recorded 16 clean sheets in their last 19 continental outings in the Spanish capital and have only once shipped more than a solitary strike in Madrid over the past four years of Champions League football as hosts. They're phenomenal stats are hard to overlook.
Chelsea 4.00 are back at Europe's top table after a year out and are defending an unbeaten nine-match run of results in Spain (W2-D7-L0). The Blues have W10-D3-L1 in 14 Champions League group games and will be keen to make their mark here.
However, this is Conte's first major test with Chelsea outside of Britain and the Italian has plenty to prove after a poor record on the road with Juventus in this competition. It's also worth noting, the Blues W0-D1-L3 at Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and Manchester United last season, failing to score in each defeat.
Tight encounter expected in Madrid
It's no secret that both Simeone and Conte pride themselves on the defensive stability and organisation of their teams, and that makes this fixture an intriguing clash of two very tactical minds. The inclination is to support a low-scoring battle.
Nine of Atletico Madrid's last 13 Champions League games have seen at least one side fail to score and the same can be said of two of Chelsea's last six competitive outings. The stats suggest the 1.84 available on No in the Both Teams To Score market should appeal with Under 2.5 Goals too skinny to support at 1.62.
However, I'm going to bolster the odds by taking the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at [5/2] with Betfair Sportsbook. Both sides are likely to be happy with a point apiece, preferring to target games against Roma and Qarabag.
This selection covers the 0-0 and 1-1 correct scores.
Recommended Bet
Back the draw and Under 2.5 Goals @ [5/2]
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