Wednesday 27 September, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3
From Russia with Love
CSKA Moscow are Champions League stalwarts, although Opta does tell us that they have failed to reach the knockout stages in their previous four Champions League appearances, and that the last time they made the Round of 16 was in 2011/12 when Real Madrid eventually knocked them out.
Manager, Viktor Goncharenko, will be hopeful of ending four years of hurt this time around as they have a relatively decent group, with Benfica and Basel being the other two teams in Group A.
The Russians opened up with a shock 2-1 win at Benfica, which goes to show that they aren't amongst the also-rans in this competition this season.
They also have a fairly decent record on this ground in this competition too - losing just two of their last dozen in front of their own fans, and that includes draws against Monaco, Manchester United, Roma and Manchester City, and victories over Sporting Lisbon and PSV.
Sternest fixture yet for Red Devils
The United juggernaut is back up and running in a way that has not been seen since Sir Alex Ferguson left the club. Jose Mourinho is certainly getting things right in his second season in charge, as not only are his team keeping clean sheets, they are also scoring plenty of goals.
The Red Devils come into this game on the back of four straight wins in all competitions and their record this year in competitive matches is played eight, won seven and drawn one.
Admittedly, United are yet to face any of the big boys, but you can't fail to be impressed by their results and manner of their performances.
Mourinho's men are top of Group A having beaten Basel 3-0 at Old Trafford and it really wouldn't surprise me if the manager would view a point at CSKA as a decent return. He knows that 10 points will be enough to qualify - 12 will top the group - and it can be argued that this will prove to be their trickiest fixture, when you taking into account all conditions.
United too short for Russian test
Those who feel that a United victory is inevitable given the form that they are in can back it to make £6.90 for every tenner staked. A price of 1.69 doesn't appeal to me though as this is an improving CSKA side who have the bit between their teeth following their win in Portugal.
A victory for the Russians is priced at 6.20, and while that does tempt me, the strength of the United back four tempers enthusiasm slightly. I'm also mildly concerned that they played Dinamo Moscow on Saturday and could only draw 0-0 - although it was away from home.
A third option is to back the draw and that is trading at around the 3.90 mark. This selection would have landed in six of the host's last dozen home Champions League fixtures and five of their last eight in the Group Stage.
There is only one way to go for my money though and that is to oppose the visitors at their short price of 1.70. A lay at that price means that for every £7 liability you put up, you will make a profit of £10. In essence, it's the equivalent of backing a [2.43] chance.
As already written about above, CSKA are hard to beat in front of their own fans and avoiding defeat would be a positive result for United.
The stats are pointing towards Under 2.5
The Betfair Layers are favouring the under in this market and I have to agree with them. Under 2.5 goals is 1.82 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.18.
The hosts are on a streak of seven home Champions League matches to finish with two goals or fewer and eight of their last nine in all competitions, home and away, have also gone under.
United's defence are rock solid and one of Mourinho's main objectives will be to keep a clean sheet. That is something that they have achieved in six of their last eight competitive games and in their Europa League campaign last term, every single one of their games from the last 16 onwards finished with less than three goals.
It's also worth noting that according to Opta, Manchester United's five away games against Russian clubs in all competitions have produced only five goals (3 for, 2 against).
Recommended Bets
Lay Man United @ 1.70
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.82
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