Europa League Betting: Hoffe's steep learning curve to continue

Ludogorets v Hoffenheim
Thursday September 28, 20:05
Live on BT Sport Extra

After the best season in their history, Hoffenheim have continued their excellent form in the Bundesliga, but European success has eluded them so far. In Germany's top flight, Hoffe remain unbeaten, and have overcome Bayern Munich this season. However, in the Champions League they were beaten home and away by Liverpool, and the first Europa League game in their history turned out to be a huge disappointment.

Julian Nagelsmann's side started well at home to Braga, but having conceded an equaliser on the stroke of half time, they then lost their nerve. A lack of European experience as a unit told, as Braga nudged in front, and then used every trick in the book to maintain their advantage.

On that basis, I'm very surprised to see Hoffenheim trading at odds-on to win this. Ludogorets' domination of the Bulgarian league in recent years has given them plenty of experience in the Champions League and the Europa League. In the UCL, they held PSG to a 2-2 draw in Paris last season, and they have only lost two of their last eight home games at that level.

Hoffenheim aren't as strong on the road as they are at the Rhein Neckar Arena (just four away wins in the last 13 attempts), and I suspect this will be another educational experience for them.

Recommended Bet
Lay Hoffenheim at 1.91

FC Koln v Crvena Svezda
Thursday September 28, 18:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN

It's been a very hard start to the season for FC Koln, with just one point collected from their first six Bundesliga games of the season. However, their fans haven't allowed that to dampen their enthusiasm for the club's first European campaign in 25 years.

Defeat at Arsenal was no surprise, but the Billy Goats didn't disgrace themselves at the Emirates, and there were signs in Sunday's 0-0 draw at high-flying Hannover that they are finding their feet.

The atmosphere at the Rhein Energie Stadion will be incredible for the visit of Crvena Zvezda, and the big question is whether that will lift the hosts and hamper the visitors. My suspicion is that it will do both.

Crvena Zvezda have only won one of their last six matches on the road in the Europa League, and they have lost three of those. They are five points clear at the top of the Serbian Super Liga, so they have confidence, but if Koln put on the kind of performance that I think has been coming, they can finally pick up a win, and truly kick off their European adventure.

Recommended Bet
Back FC Koln to win at 1.75

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Villarreal
Thursday September 28, 18:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN

These are difficult times for Villarreal. They have just sacked coach Fran Escriba,part of a flurry of dismissals in La Liga in recent days. Escriba was given his marching orders after a humbling 4-0 defeat to Getafe, the Yellow Submarine's third defeat in six La Liga matches this season.

Escriba's replacement is the B-team coach Javi Calleja, a man who played for the club in the Champions League, and who has been working in the youth department for several years.

Calleja's debut could be a tricky one at Israeli side Maccabi Tel Aviv. The hosts are unbeaten in their last six Europa League home matches, and they have won four of those games. They have taken ten points from their opening five games in the Ligat Ha'al, and overall they have lost just one of their last nine matches on home soil.

Given their recent form, Villarreal seem too short for the win at 2.10, so we can use the Double Chance market to get the draw and the home win onside.

Recommended Bet
Back Home or Draw in the Double Chance market at 1.89

AC Milan v Rijeka
Thursday September 28, 20:05
Live on BT Sport 3

While the new-look AC Milan have hit a couple of bumps in the road in Serie A (they have lost at Lazio and Sampdoria), they have sparkled so far in the Europa League. The Rossoneri won 5-1 at Austria Vienna on Matchday One, and in the qualifiers they spanked Shkendjia 7-0 on aggregate. Coach Vincenzo Montellahas a deep squad to choose from, with various options across his team.

At home, Milan have won all four of their games so far, and I expect that 100% record to be maintained on Thursday night. Croatian side Rijeka lost their group-stage opener 2-1 at home to AEK Athens, and they haven't won any of their last six UEL games.

Recommended Bet
Back AC Milan -1.5 & -2.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.93