Bundesliga Betting: Life after Carlo could start with a whimper

Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich
Sunday October 01, 14:30

The dismissal of Carlo Ancelotti as Bayern Munich coach was not necessarily a surprise, but the timing was. Bayern's powerbrokers have had reservations about the Italian's methods for some time - they felt he was too hands-off in his approach, happy to let individual brilliance win games rather than tactical excellence. Unlike his predecessor Pep Guardiola, Ancelotti wasn't looking to constantly challenge his players in a bid to improve them.

That avuncular, jovial approach had some success last season, as Bayern won a fifth consecutive Bundesliga crown, finishing 15 points ahead of RB Leipzig. However, the alarm bells were clanging at deafening volume after last Friday's careless 2-2 draw at home to Wolfsburg, and the final act was played out on Wednesday in Paris. Bayern's 3-0 Champions League defeat at PSG was perhaps a touch flattering to the hosts, but the German giants could hardly complain about defeat. Ancelotti had inexplicably left Mats Hummels and Arjen Robben out of a game that Bayern were hoping to use to send out a clear and positive message. Robben's failure to back his coach after the match spoke volumes.

So Carletto is on his way, and at time of writing, former Borussia Dortmund boss Thomas Tuchel is the favourite to step in. That makes perfect sense - Tuchel is an excellent coach, who already lives in Munich, and he is a free agent. However, if they hire him, Bayern are swinging to the other end of the intensity spectrum again. Like Guardiola, Tuchel is abrasive and demanding, a man who wore out the patience of his bosses and some senior players at BVB in just two years. If Tuchel does get the job, don't expect the background noise at Bayern to die away.

Bayern must now focus on trying to close the three-point gap between themselves and leaders Dortmund, and they have a very tricky fixture ahead. Hertha Berlin are unbeaten at home this season, they were seconds away from winning the corresponding fixture last term before Robert Lewandowski equalised, and Hertha have lost just seven of their last 38 home games in the German top flight.

Hertha lost 1-0 at Ostersunds in the Europa League on Thursday, but left key players like Marvin Plattenhardt, Karim Rekik and Matthew Leckie at home, so all three should return. Skipper and star striker Vedad Ibisevic is suspended after swearing at referee Tobias Stieler in last weekend's 1-0 defeat at Mainz, a claim he still vehemently denies.

With Ibisevic out, Hertha may be even more compact and defensive than usual, and I suspect this will be pretty tight. Five of Hertha's six Bundesliga matches this term have featured fewer than three goals, as have two of Bayern's three away games in the league.

I'm happy to go for Under 2.5 Goals at 2.22.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.22

Wolfsburg v Mainz
Saturday September 30, 14:30

We should only whisper it, but Wolfsburg might've finally found a coach who can get the best out of their squad. Martin Schmidt has only had a short time to work with his players, but they drew with Werder Bremen in their first game under the Swiss coach, and managed an extraordinary comeback at Bayern Munich last Friday. 2-0 down at half-time, the Wolves played with spirit and adventure in the second period, and deserved the point that came their way.

Now Schmidt faces his old club Mainz, and his inside knowledge of their squad could prove very useful. Die Nullfunfer made a bold call in the summer as they replaced Schmidt with U23 boss Sandro Schwarz, and it hasn't been a smooth transition so far. Away from home, Mainz have lost both of their Bundesliga games without scoring, and they're just two points above the bottom three.

Wolfsburg have a spring in their step after holding Bayern, they have had a few more tactical sessions with Schmidt, and frankly they have better players than their opponents. I'm going for a home win.

Recommended Bet
Back Wolfsburg to win at 2.20

FC Koln v RB Leipzig
Sunday October 01, 17:00

When you find something that works in betting, there's no harm in following that trend until it runs its course. Regular readers will know that I have backed Leipzig's Timo Werner to score in Die Roten Bullen's last two home games in the league, and he has delivered both times. The German international has now netted 16 goals in his last 18 games for club and country, and I expect him to have chances against an FC Koln defence that is struggling badly.

Even ultra-reliable keeper Timo Horn has been affected by the Billy Goats' collective loss of confidence, the latest consequence of which was Thursday's heartbreaking 1-0 home defeat to Crvena Zvezda in the Europa League. Koln have now leaked 16 goals in their last seven games in all competitions.

Werner was the subject of controversy in midweek, as he asked to be substituted barely half an hour into Leipzig's 2-0 Champions League defeat at Besiktas. Amidst a deafening atmosphere in Istanbul, Werner complained of dizziness and asked for ear plugs to block out the noise. His coach Ralph Hasenhuttl wasn't impressed, but Werner should still start, and score, on Sunday.

Recommended Bet
Back Timo Werner to score at 2.40