Aston Villa are upwardly mobile, winning three consecutive Championship games and now unbeaten in seven, a run that has seen them climb from just above the relegation zone in the early table to just outside the play-offs.
Steve Bruce's men have also recorded four clean sheets in their last five league games, which we really shouldn't be surprised about, but what I have been impressed with regarding Villa is the number of goals they score when they are on form.
At the start of the season I could see Villa churning out 1-0 and 2-0 wins but it's been quite the opposite if truth be told. Bruce's men have scored four against a decent Norwich side, four against a very good Wigan team, three in a win at Barnsley and four at Burton in midweek.
Those last two victories mentioned, albeit away from home, have come without conceding however, which bodes well for the recommended bet.
It's impossible to envisage Villa not scoring two or three at least against a very poor Bolton side, and if they can keep a clean sheet then they'll easily cover the -1 handicap.
And the chances of Villa keeping a clean sheet have to be extremely high given that they're on home soil to the worst team in the division. The Trotters are already six points adrift of safety at the bottom of the table with a far inferior goal difference to any other club.
Phil Parkinson's men have now lost seven games on the spin and have failed to score a single goal in any of those matches. Their last four away games have resulted in 4-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 2-0 defeats, and I don't see any reason why a confident Villa side won't inflict a similar defeat on them this weekend.
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Back Aston Villa -1 to Win @ 11/10 (Sportsbook) (best bet)
Ipswich 3.10 v Bristol City 2.48; The Draw 3.50
I rate Bristol City quite highly and believe they're an outside bet to reach the play-offs. And after selecting them to win at Norwich last weekend (they drew 0-0) I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were to go to Ipswich and win.
But betting is all about price - I selected the Robins last week because their odds to win - 4.10 - looked too big. I'm opposing them this week because their win odds simply look too short.
For whatever reason, two clubs in the Championship regularly get underestimated in the Match Odds markets; Reading are one and Ipswich are the other. How the Tractors Boys can be the outsiders to win this match is a bit of a puzzle to me.
To put their price into perspective, or rather why Bristol City look a bit short, last week the Robins were 4.10 to win away at a Norwich side that were sitting below mid-table. This week Bristol City are much shorter at 2.48 to win away at an Ipswich side sitting above them in the table, and one that has just thrashed Sunderland 5-2 in midweek.
As I say, it's a puzzle to me why Lee Johnson's men are favourites, especially in a division where the markets usually favour strongly the home side when two teams are evenly matched.
And that's exactly how I see this game. I rate Bristol City slightly better than Mick McCarthy's men but Ipswich having home advantage - they've won four of their five league games at Portman Road this season - slightly tips it in their favour for me, and I'd have the home side trading at around 2.40 with City at around 3.20.
I really won't be surprised at whatever the outcome ends up being, bug given Ipswich have home advantage, that they've won 80% of their home games this term, and that they're above Bristol City in the table, then I just have to back them at a price that I believe is too big.
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Back Ipswich to Win @ 3.10
Middlesbrough 2.00 v Brentford 4.30; The Draw 3.50
There were a lot of disgruntled fans after Middlesbrough's first home defeat of the season in midweek but I think it's a bit early to be worrying just yet.
Admittedly it's been no more than an average start to the season for pre-season title favourites Boro, but there are definite signs that they're starting to click into gear and that a good stretch of form is just around the corner.
And let's not forget, the midweek loss to Norwich was Boro's first defeat in eight games. Garry Monk's men actually played quite well on Tuesday night too, registering over 20 shots at goal, five on target, and having 13 corners to the Canaries' one. It was another mistake that led to Norwich's goal, for all James Maddison's 13th minute striker was an excellent one.
If Monk's men can cut out those uncharacteristic errors, and start putting the ball in the back of the net more regularly - easier said than done admittedly - then I see no reason why they can't start climbing the table.
Boro were odds-on in midweek to beat a Norwich side that had found a bit of form and kept four clean sheets, yet here we can back Monk's men at even money at home to a Brentford side just above the relegation zone with just one league win to their name all season.
I do believe the Bees are in a false position however, and they should have few problems climbing the table themselves, but there's no doubt that they have a weaker squad - and a small one at that - than the one that commenced the season after some significant outgoings, none more so than the excellent Jota.
Consider also that Boro have a fabulous record over Brentford - they've won six out of six meetings home or away since the Bees were promoted to the Championship - then I think the even money price about a home win is a very fair one indeed.
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Back Middlesbrough to Win @ 2.00
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