AFL Preview: Blues v Crows

Carlton v Adelaide
Saturday 2:10pm at MCG

A total mismatch on paper, Carlton will be hoping to stun an Adelaide team looking to climb back to top spot.

Form
Carlton are 15th on the ladder with a 5-8 record and enter this off two wins in their last three, so they are playing reasonable football. Their last games was a 26-point loss to rivals Richmond. The Blues have not posted a score of 100 all year.

Adelaide sit second on the ladder with a 9-4 record, dropping from top spot after a shock loss to Hawthorn. The Crows have lost two of their last three. The Crows have scored 100-plus in nine of their 13 games this season. Adelaide have kept opponents to 60 or fewer in three of their last five.

Stats That Matter

– Carlton have won 4 of the last 7 against Adelaide.
– Carlton are 28-21 ATS at the MCG since 2012.
– The Blues are 16-4 ATS at the MCG as an underdog of three goals or more since 2012.
– Carlton are 18-8 ATS in day matches at the MCG.
– Adelaide are 36-18 ATS in day games since 2012.
– The Crows are 39-20 over interstate.
– Adelaide are 12-7 ATS interstate when favoured by three or more goals.
– The Crows have covered 9 of their last 11 after being restricted to fewer than 90 points.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Carlton 8-5, Adelaide 9-4
2017 Over-Under: Carlton 5-8, Adelaide 6-7

What To Expect
Both teams have been kind to punters this year and this is no easy game to forecast. A small lean towards the Blues here, who have been absolute money getting three or more goals at the MCG. The Blues also have a good record against the Crows.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 12

Recommended Bet
Carlton +27.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Sam Docherty has hit 30-plus touches in three of his last four. He is the real deal and just continues to improve.

Recommended Bet
Sam Docherty 30+ Disposals ($1.75)