AFL Preview: Saints v Suns

St Kilda v Gold Coast

Sunday 4:40pm at Etihad Stadium

St Kilda and Gold Coast round out a compelling Round 14 with both teams needing a win to stay in contact with the Top 8.

Form

St Kilda are down to 10th on the ladder with a 6-6 record. They rank 13th in attack and 12th in defence. The Saints have won just one of their last four, a win over lowly North Melbourne. The Saints have not scored over 90 points in their last five after achieving the feat five times in their first seven matches.

Gold Coast are 14th on the ladder with five wins and seven losses. The Suns have won just three of their last eight and enter this off a disappointing home loss to Carlton. Gold Coast have been held to 95 or fewer in their last five. The Suns rank an acceptable 11th in attack but have been horrific defensively rating 16th.

Stats That Matter

– St Kilda and Gold Coast are 4-4 all-time with four covers apiece.

– St Kilda are 6-5 ATS at Etihad when favoured by more than three goals.

– Gold Coast are 6-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium.

– The Suns are 21-29 ATS since 2012 interstate.

– The over is 23-10 when Gold Coast are an interstate underdog of more than three goals.

– The over is 15-6 when Gold Coast are +18.5 or bigger interstate off a loss.

Betting Data

2017 Line: St Kilda 5-7, Gold Coast 6-6

2017 Over-Under: St Kilda 5-7, Gold Coast 7-5

What To Expect

The over is the bet in a very difficult last game for punters. The Suns as a big outsider tend to play fairly loose and that has historically led to a lot of over games. It is hard to see this one not surpassing the smallish total.

How It’s Shaping Up

St Kilda by 25

Recommended Bet

Over 176.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets

Seb Ross has hit 110 in seven of his last nine games with one of those misses a close-up 107. He is a ball magnet who will love the likely wide-open game.

Recommended Bet

Seb Ross 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.75)