Melbourne v Sydney
Friday 7:50pm at MCG
Round 15 kicks off with an absolute ripper of a match between two in-form teams hoping to continue to ride the wave of momentum.
Melbourne are up to fifth on the ladder with an 8-5 record after an incredible win in Perth over West Coast on the back of a huge betting plunge. The Demons have now won four straight with their last two wins coming against teams in the top half of the competition. Melbourne have posted at least 90 points in eight straight and rank fourth in scoring while they rate 11th defensively.
The Swans have recaptured the imagination of their fans with six wins in their last seven games including a dramatic late come-from-behind win over Essendon last Friday. The Swans are now up to 10th on the ladder, having almost completely put their 0-6 start behind them. Sydney have kept opponents to 85 points or fewer in seven straight.
Stats That Matter
– Melbourne have just a win and a draw from their last 12 against Sydney.
– The under has hit in 4 of the 5 games played since 2012.
– Melbourne are 9-19 ATS as a favourite since 2012 and have covered just 2 of their last 10.
– The under is 19-9 when Melbourne are favoured since 2012.
– The under is 20-12 when Sydney are outsiders since 2012.
– The Swans have covered 6 of their last 9 as an underdog.
– The Demons have failed to cover seven straight at the MCG.
– Melbourne are 42-28 under at the MCG since 2012.
– The Demons are 8-4 under at the MCG at night.
– The Swans are 8-3 under at the MCG at night.
– Sydney are 7-11 ATS at the MCG.
– Sydney are 1-5 ATS after conceding 85 or more points.
2017 Line: Melbourne 6-7, Sydney 5-8
2017 Over-Under: Melbourne 7-6, Sydney 6-7
What To Expect
Get on the under early and don’t stop getting on. These teams can both play shutdown football and they tend to do so when going against each other. The Swans are huge unders when an underdog, the Demons a big under team as a favourite. The MCG at night just strengthens it. This total can be bet under down to 160.
How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 6
Under 178.5 points ($1.88)
Isaac Heeney has posted scores of 113, 109 and 122 in his last three and has scored 109 or more in five of his nine appearances this year. The $2.25 is overs.
Isaac Heeney 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
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