AFL Preview: Tigers v Blues

Richmond v Carlton
Sunday 3:20pm at MCG

After a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Sydney last week, Richmond will be desperate to atone against rivals Carlton.

Form
Richmond have been killed in close games this year, having lost four single-digit games in the last six weeks. The Tigers remain sixth on the ladder with a 7-5 record but enter this off a heartbreaking loss to Sydney, a game totally blown. The Tigers have now dropped five of their last seven. Richmond have the second best defence in the AFL to go with the 12th ranked attack.

Carlton have the worst attack to go with the 10th ranked defence and sit 15th on the ladder with a 5-7 record. The Blues have won their last two against GWS and at Gold Coast and are looking to make it three straight for just the second time since 2013. Carlton have not kicked 100 points all season. They have conceded more than 86 though in just one of their last seven.

Stats That Matter

– Richmond have won five straight against Carlton dating back to 2014.
– The Tigers have covered 4 of their last 5 matches.
– Nine of the 10 games since 2012 have gone over the total.
– Richmond are 46-29 under at the MCG since 2012.
– Carlton have covered 18 of their last 25 day games at the MCG.
– Carlton are 19-7 ATS at the MCG when an underdog of more than two goals.
– Richmond have covered just 10 of their last 33 at the MCG when favoured by more than two goals.
– The Tigers have covered just 2 of their last 10 in Melbourne off a single digit loss.
– Carlton are 21-14 over in Melbourne off a win.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Richmond 9-3, Carlton 8-4
2017 Over-Under: Richmond 2-10, Carlton 5-7

What To Expect
Carlton are a sensational bet in this one to knock off rivals Richmond. The Tigers’ inability to close out tight matches is becoming increasingly concerning. The Blues have absolutely superb cover records in day matches at the MCG and when an underdog of more than two goals at the MCG. In good form, Carlton are the play.

How It’s Shaping Up
Carlton by 4

Recommended Bet
Carlton +13.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Sam Docherty’s last five scores have been 127, 119, 130, 149 and 143. The over 120 looks like free money.

Recommended Bet
Sam Docherty 120+ Fantasy Points ($1.90)