Quicken Loans National: Preview and Tips

Course

Last week at the Traveler’s was absolutely enthralling as Jordan Spieth put on an absolute exhibition of golf. This week as the Tour moves on to the Quicken Loans National tournament, fans will be hoping to get more of the same.

The course for this year’s event is the TPC Potomac, a course that underwent a huge overhaul in 2008. The tour returns to the course for the first time since the redesign meaning that this will be the first look at the course for much of the field.

This is a not a long course, playing just north of 7100 yards. It is a Par-70 with 2 Par 5’s, one of which is a massive 620 yards. This course also features 6 Par 4’s which are between 450-500 yards.

The weather forecast is for clear skies at the moment with little win forecast – ideal conditions for low scoring.

Tournament Overview

Billy Hurley III won the event last year when it was held at the Congressional Course, with Troy Merritt winning it the year before that – both first time winners. With only three players from the top-25 being represented this weekend, it will not be a surprise to see another lesser known player earn themselves a maiden victory.

A smaller than usual field of 120 players will take the course on Thursday and the top 70 plus ties will make the cut after two rounds of play.

Some interesting facts are coming out about the course and some players have reported that the fairways have a tremendous carry to them with the bentgrass greens said to be very quick. The new narrower fairways, sloping greens, and aggressive bunker placement makes this a tricky course to navigate.

The last two Web.com events held here saw winning scores of 8 and 7-under Par indicating that avoiding making mistakes will be key. Typically, short players who are accurate, good at scrambling and avoiding that one bad hole, as well as players on top of their short game, are going to be in contention this weekend.

Stats That Matter

The Wolf is looking at the following statistics to help make his picks this weekend:

– Strokes Gained: Approach
– Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
– Par 4 scoring
– Scrambling

This is not a course that will favour bombers off the tee but instead will reward consistency and not making mistakes.

There really is very little to be gained from looking at past champions this week because the Wolf believes this heavily redesigned course is going to mean that no one has an advantage of past course knowledge to fall back on.

Predictions

The market’s favourites this week are Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed. All excellent players that the Wolf is going to pass on. Fowler has a good record at this tournament and is bringing some decent form but at $9.00 is just not attractive enough. Thomas is going through a bit of a cooling off period in his game while Patrick Reed remains too inconsistent for the Wolf.

For his top pick this week the Wolf is going with Brendan Steele at $26.00. Steele has been in excellent form of late finishing 14th at the Travelers, 13th at the US Open and 6th at the Players in his last four tournaments. Against a weaker field this week, he could find himself at the front of the pack rather than just behind the leaders. His stats also stack up very impressively as he comes in 5th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in scrambling, 17th in ball striking.

Marc Leishman and Bill Hass in this range are also very attractive picks and players to keep an eye on for In-Play betting if they get on a roll.

For the value pick, the Wolf is getting behind Danny Lee at $34.00. Lee has been ripping up courses over the last month or so and seems to have overcome the horror start he had to the year. He has two top-5 finishes and a T6 in his last five tournaments. His 3rd at the Travelers last week was a stunning performance which got somewhat overshadowed because of Spieth’s heroics but make no mistake, Lee could very well convert this strong run of form into a win this weekend.

This week’s roughie is Byeong Hun An at $51.00. He has been among The Wolf’s picks over the last 6-8 weeks and he says we cannot jump off now. The Korean has been losing his form a little of late and finished 66th at the Travelers after a missed cut in the previous tournament but we have to stick with him for a few more weeks. The Wolf thinks that playing in a relatively weaker field could lift the pressure off him a little and allow him to play his natural game. He is a very consistent driver and can dial in the irons on his day. His scrambling and putting has been preventing him from getting further up the leaderboard but he retains enough quality to warrant a pick at the current rate being offered. His ability to play well on tough courses could come to the fore here.

Recommended Bets

Tournament Winner

Best : Brendan Steele ($26.00)
Value : Danny Lee ($34.00)
Roughie: Byeong Hun An ($51.00)

Tournament By Country

Top Aussie: March Leishman ($2.00)
Top USA: Brendan Steele ($13.00)
Top European: David Lingmerth ($2.25)
Top Rest of World: Danny Lee ($5.50)

72 Hole Match Bets

Big 6 v Field: Field ($1.43)
Chappel vs Lingmerth: David Lingmerth ($1.90)
Henley vs Finau: Tony Finau ($1.92)
Holmes vs Kim: JB Holmes ($1.90)