AFL Preview: Giants v Cats

GWS v Geelong

Saturday 7:25pm at Spotless Stadium

The match of the round without question, first-placed Greater Western Sydney host third-placed Geelong in a salivating affair that will have a major impact on the pointy end of the ladder.

Form

Greater Western Sydney has moved top of the table with their 10-3 record following their 60-point destruction of the Brisbane Lions. The Giants have a 10-3 record and have won 5 of their last 6 with their only loss a shock to Carlton. GWS rank third in attack and sixth in defence. Five of the last eight Giants games have been decided by single digits.

Geelong have won four of their last five and are third on the ladder, just a win behind the Giants. They enter this off a two-point win at home to Fremantle in what was a grinding affair. The Cats have dropped their last four away from Simonds Stadium. Geelong rank fifth in scoring but are a surprisingly average ninth defensively.

Stats That Matter

– Geelong have won 5 of the 6 all-time matches against GWS.

– GWS have covered 5 of the 6 all-time matches against Geelong.

– GWS have covered just 2 of their last 8 at Spotless.

– The Giants are over 9-6 at Spotless when favoured by more than three goals.

– The over is 11-4 in the last 15 Giants games at Spotless when they are favoured.

– GWS are 4-1 ATS at Spotless after scoring 110 or more.

– Geelong are 12-17 ATS interstate since 2012.

– The Cats have covered their last three as an interstate outsider.

– Geelong have covered just 1 of 4 since 2012 when an underdog of at least three goals.

– GWS are 12-3 under at night.

– Geelong have gone under in 10 of their last 16 at night.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Greater Western Sydney 6-7, Geelong 6-7

2017 Over-Under: Greater Western Sydney 8-5, Geelong 7-6

What To Expect

Betting does seem a little off in this one making the Cats getting an enormous start a bet. Not too many angles pushing them but GWS have barely been winning of late. The best bet though is the under. The Giants go under in 80% of night games while the Cats have been a strong under team at night of late.

How It’s Shaping Up

GWS by 6

Recommended Bet

Under 177.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets

Mitch Duncan has found the 30-touch mark in four of his last five and he has a great level of consistency with the amount of ball he gets, hitting between 27 and 33 touches in 10 of his 13 games.

Recommended Bet

Mitch Duncan 30+ Disposals ($1.75)