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Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs
Thursday, June 29, 7:50pm (AEST) at ANZ Stadium
Parramatta are poised at a Top 8 run with an 8-7 record and a bye still in hand. They are coming fresh off the bye and take on a Bulldogs sign that have no bark left. Despite boasting a side that have several Origin stars and an abundance of internationals Desy’s Dogs have the worst attack in the competition. Now 4 points adrift of 8th and with an inferior points differential the Bulldogs find themselves in must win territory on Friday night.
History
There is no shortage of history between these two bitter rivals from their matchups in the 80’s to the Dogs come from behind win in the 1998 finals and the record 74,549 that attended the 2009 prelim between the pair. Most recently, the Eels won both matches in 2016 after the Bulldogs had won nine of the 10 previous.
Form
Parramatta have won five of their last six at ANZ this season. They sit in 8th spot despite having a negative points differential and have 5 wins over current top 8 sides. They also have the benefit of playing just 1 top 8 side in their last 5 games. Canterbury meanwhile are 13th on the ladder with a 6-9 record. They’ve won just one of their last six and returned to their horrific form against the Warriors in a game they were never in. The Bulldogs average just 13.9ppg this season – a NRL worst. They also rank 15th in both line breaks and try assists.
Key Matchup
David Klemmer v Nathan Brown: Size does matter when these two rivals meet. This is a derby that is almost exclusively won by the side that wins the battle in the middle and these two hold the key for their respective sides. Klemmer has posted 100+ metres in all but one of his games this season despite averaging just over 50 minutes per game. The direction from Des is to be a power runner and he is exactly that. Came of the bench last week as hew was backing up from Origin but will no doubt be re-injected to the starting line up for the battle with Brown. The 24 year old has quickly become the leader of the Parra pack! He ran for 200m in a match winning performance against the Dragons last week and has really learnt how to harness his aggression. Aggression is something that the Dogs need to find and there could be fireworks between these two in the opening minutes.
Stats That Matter
– Parramatta are 8-7 ATS with a 10-5 under record while Canterbury are 8-7 ATS with an 12-3 under record.
– The Eels won both matches against the Bulldogs in 2016 after the Bulldogs had won nine of the 10 previous.
– Five of the last six matches have tallied less than 34 points.
– Parramatta have covered 11 of their last 14 at ANZ while Canterbury have covered just 5 of their last 12.
– The under is 14-5 in Eels games at ANZ since 2014 and 29-22 in Bulldogs matches.
– Canterbury are 21-13 under in night games.
– The Bulldogs are 8-4 ATS at ANZ getting a start of 4 or more while the Eels have covered 3 of their last 4 as a favourite of 4-plus at the venue.
– The Eels have covered just 7 of their last 20 as a favourite of 4 or more.
– The under is a perfect 7-0 when the Eels are favoured off a win of 13-plus.
Final Thoughts
The Dogs are in all sorts at the moment. Their attack is dysfunctional, their kicking game is non-existent and they are the most ineffective team when in the opposition 20. On what will be a cold winters night the Under shapes as a great bet. The Under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings, the Dogs are a genuine Unders team in night games and the Under is 7-0 in the Eels last 7 when starting as a favourite following a win of 13 or more. The Under will also be helped by the respective poor goal kicking of both sides. The Eels rank 11th in try conversions with the Dogs dead last, converting just 22 of their 38 tries (58%). The Wolf says to take a piece of the Under 38 total as early as possible.
How It’s Shaping Up
Parramatta by 6
Best Bet
Under 38 points ($1.88)
Other Recommended Bets
Parramatta 1-12 ($3.00)
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