Muller and Lopez continue to serve their opponents off the court at Queen’s but The Wolf says it is all about Marin Cilic. It is hard to see him getting beat this week and he will be brimming with confidence once they hit the courts at Wimbledon. Meanwhile in Halle, Federer amd Alexander Zverev are on a collision course to meet in the final.
Gilles Muller v Marin Cilic
The Wolf is somewhat disappointed that these two meet but after riding them and Lopez all week it is no surprise that all three men are in the semi’s. They have met just once and it took Cilic two tiebreakers to take down the big serving lefty. If Muller is to cause an upset he will have to turn that tiebreak record around as breaking serve will be close to impossible. Not only has Cilic’s serve not been broken this week, he is yet to face a single break point!!! Muller hasn’t dropped serve either so get ready for a vintage display of grass court serving.
Best Bet: 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($1.80)
Value: Sets Cilic 2-1 ($3.30)
Grigor Dimitrov v Feliciano Lopez
Lopez made it back to back wins over Berdych in as many weeks and will start outsider yet again. The Wolf is still trying to figure out how… Fair enough, Dimitrov is a quality player but Lopez is in rare form. Like Cilic and Muller his serve is yet to be broken this week and he will use that sliding serve in the ad court in order to stretch Dimitrov wide on the backhand wing. Grigor is coming off one of the rarest feats we have ever seen on a tennis court. He made 24 of 24 1st serves en route to winning the first set yesterday but The Wolf says not to read too much into it as his serve was still broken. He won just 70% of 1st serve points and that is a number that will leave the door open for Lopez. Wolfy says we will continue to back Lopez.
Best Bet: Over 24.5 games ($1.85)
Value Bet: Lopez WIN ($2.00)
Roger Federer v Karen Khachanov
Federer was in devastating form in his win over Mayer and the scoreline would have been even more lob sided had he converted his break point opportunities at a better rate than 2 of 12. Khachanov took full advantage of Nishikori’s retirement to beat Rublev and make his first semi final of the season but this is a significant step up. The towering Russian held his own in the 4th round of Roland Garros and grass shapes as a surface that really suits his game. He has a crushing one-two game backing up his huge serve with a barrage of inside out forehands. He will not get as many free points on serve as he is accustomed to against Federer who uses slice to the ultimate effect on this surface. Federer will come up clutch when it counts but The Wolf can see Khachanov holding serve enough times to send one of the sets to a breaker. It makes the Over the best play.
Best Bet: Over 20.5 games ($1.85)
Value Bet: 1st Set Scorecast Federer 7-6 ($6.50)
Alexander Zverev v Richard Gasquet
Gasquet continues to get results on grass yet no one is giving him the respect he deserves. This match should be much closer to a flip! Zverev is yet to have his serve broken this week but that will change. Gasquet has broken serve more times than any other player this week. The Frenchman has generated a total of 12 breaks of serve – with at least 3 in each of his matches this week and they have hardly come against slouches. Monfils has one of the best hold percentages on tour, Tomic’s best surface is grass and Haase was coming off wins over Ferrer and Thiem. The Wolf will say it again… Gasquet is a two time semi finalist at Wimbledon and if they keep putting up prices like this we will continue to back him!
Best Bet: Gasquet +2.5 ($2.00)
Value Bet: Gasquet WIN ($2.90)
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